The notion that there is no way that US or Israeli intelligence foresaw this coming war because they are supposedly so omnisciently brilliant suffers from a basic failure of human cognition. With increased technology, intelligence agencies and cops have gotten much better are uncovering enemy plans and catching criminals. But they still don’t know everything.
Humans are basically idiots so they think that with this increased intelligence, cops and spies turn into infallible Gods. “How could they not know?…how can they not catch him? The intelligence agencies/cops are incompetent.” However they’re not necessarily incompetent at all. The finest intelligence agencies and best police departments on Earth may not be able to uncover enemy plans or catch notorious criminals.
It also suffers from the American, “Fire them,” approach to all problems. I’ve noticed that Americans love the idea of firing people from their jobs. I suppose none of these idiots ever got canned. I’ve heard that over in Europe, firing is a last resort and is only resorted to after multiple warnings, etc. Also workers have a lot of protections from unfair firings.
I think Americans harbor an authoritarian mean streak. It’s probably due to the hypercapitalism we practice here, but it’s also due to our exceptional nature. Because we are exceptional and better than anyone else, we are therefore perfect and can’t make mistakes. Hence despite errare humana est, known since Antiquity, it’s mistakes = firings. Zero mistakes or errors are allowed the typical American worker.
This notion about spies and cops suffers from the “God effect.” We think intelligence agencies and cops are Gods. Why? Because we’re stupid!
“There’s no way the cops could not catch that evil killer!”
Oh, yes there is! As long as the cops are not Gods, there will be lots of people they cannot catch.
Same thing with the all-encompassing intelligence agencies. Sure, Mossad is good, but they have not a soul in Gaza or in Hamas, Hezbollah, or any of the major Palestinian groups. Nor do they have anyone deep inside Iran. These people have really good opsec.
As long as Mossad, etc. are not Gods, there will be things they cannot predict and people they cannot catch. They still can’t find Mohammad Deif in Gaza after decades of searching for him. They’ve been trying to kill him forever, and they’ve tried to kill him seven times, but he’s still alive. I’m not sure of his wounds, but I’ve heard he lost an eye and an arm and a leg. But you can still get around with those issues.
At one time they had a source inside Hamas who was giving them info about Deif’s whereabouts. This was the man the Jews claimed was killed for being gay. He wasn’t. He was killed for giving up Deif to Israel. Deif left that location only a hour before it was hit. The guy being gay was the blackmail Israel used to hook him in as a source.
I’m not even sure that Israel has good sources inside the Fatah splits like AMD or Al Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade. And there are so many of these little splits and grouplings now that there’s no way that they have people inside all of them. But Shin Bet has excellent intel inside the West Bank, I’ll give them that.