Russia-Ukraine War Update

Here are some very good casualty figures. Most casualty figures you read are garbage – just war propaganda, but these are excellent and documented.

Casualties:

Russian forces

Russia                    11,662* killed, ~30,000? wounded

Russian military      5,937 killed (outdated in include in the previous tally)

DPR                       4,163 killed, 17,329 wounded

LPR                        1,000+ killed

Total                      16,825 killed, 47,329 wounded, 64,154 total casualties

Ukrainian forces

Ukrainian forces*    157,000* killed (includes 122,000 killed* and 35,000 missing*) ~300,000? wounded, 457,000 total casualties.

Polish foreign fighters 1,200 killed.

*Russian forces includes Russian military, Wagner Group, FSB, National Guard, and foreign fighters.

Ukrainian forces includes the Ukrainian Army, Border Guard, and National Guard.

DPR and LPR figures are their official figures, and they are probably good. Combined Russian and combined Ukrainian forces are correct and documented because they were derived by counting official death notices in the media. All combat deaths get an official notice in the media. Ukrainian missing figure is from the Ukrainian government. Wagner casualties alone are not known, but the last good figure was 1,200 killed.

The casualty figures are 9-1 in Russia’s favor. So every soldier Russia loses, Ukraine loses nine!

The Western media is lying like crazy about Russian casualties. For instance, the Pentagon said that Russia had 180,000 casualties in this war. As you can see, adding up all Russian casualties, we got a little over 62,000 casualties.

Ukraine’s (the Nazis’) casualties are catastrophic, and word seems to be getting around Ukraine about them because there is growing resistance to the draft. There are a number of videos of Nazi soldiers wrestling draftees to the ground after giving them a summons. Soldiers looking for draftees have taken to disguising themselves in ambulances and other civilian vehicles. Resistance is particularly acute in Hungarian areas in Zakapartia and in Russian area of Odessa. Those people really don’t want to fight.

Hungarians singled out for the draft. It’s a fact that ethnic Hungarians in Zakapartia in the Carpathian Mountains have been particularly singled out. A disproportionate number of Ukrainian casualties have come from this area. Apparently the Ukrainian government knows about the high casualties they are suffering and they have decided to send the Hungarians, who they hate, to the front to die. This is Ukraine’s way of getting rid of the Hungarian problem – to kill them off at the front.

Hungarians say that they have been grossly abused by the Ukrainian Nazi government since Ukraine’s independence. The Nazis call them dogs and act like they want to get rid of the Hungarians. This is simply normative Ukrainian nationalism – they hate everyone who is not a Ukrainian and they want to get rid of them or ethnically cleanse them.

Restrictions have been placed on speaking Hungarian in Ukraine, and Hungarian language has been removed from some public buildings. Recently a huge number of Hungarian teachers – perhaps all of them – have been fired from their jobs.

A recent video showed members of an actual Nazi militia – the Right Sector – threatening the Hungarian minority in Ukraine. In the video, the Nazis said that they knew where the Hungarians lived and who their children were. They warned them to behave or else. The Hungarian government has recently become alarmed over the treatment of Hungarians in Ukraine and has issued statements of concern about this.

Greeks have also been seriously abused by the Nazis. There are quite a few Greeks living around Mariupol. They even have their own dialect of Greek which is not very intelligible with Standard Greek. Recently, Greeks were shot dead in Mariupol by members of an actual Nazi militia simply for speaking Russian.

Romanians say that the Nazis have been persecuting them too. Their region is called Bessarabia. I don’t have details on the nature of this persecution.

Reportedly, Poles have also been abused by the Nazis, but I don’t have any details on that.

As you can see, the Greeks, Poles, Hungarians, Romanians, and Russians have all been abused by the Nazis since independence. This is because Ukrainian nationalism is a Nazi ideology that calls for an ethnically pure Ukraine with no minorities. Any minorities that exist must be killed, driven out, or assimilated and turned into Ukrainians.

The Svatove area has been pretty static. The Nazis took control of one town but the Russians are now fighting them over it. There is a lot of talk about the Nazis breaking through in this area, but the Russian side has been hugely reinforced with major fortifications, so that does not seem likely.

In the Kremina area, there have been few changes. Recently, the Chechens made some gains in the forest southeast of Dibrova. There have also been some Russian gains in the Siversk area. In this region 50,000 Ukrainians face off against 30,000 Russians. Both sides have been reinforcing lately. There is a lot of talk about the Nazis making gains in this area lately, but really there isn’t anything to speak of.

Russia has made huge gains in the Bakhmut-Soldear area. Recently, the Wagner Group (the musicians) captured the Sil train station northwest of Soledar and Krasnopilovka to the north. Yakolivka was taken a while back. The musicians are currently attacking Razdolivka, also to the north. The Russian military and Wagner are fighting over Blahodatne and Krasna Hora to the west.

The Russian military has taken Pidhorodne in the far northeast of Bakhmut and is fighting for Paraskovivka north of Bakhmut. The Russian military reports that the Nazis are very short of ammunition in this area. Each artillery piece only has five or six 155mm shells a day to fire. They have made some gains in far northeastern Bakhmut and have now advanced to the east side of the Bakhmutske River. They have also taken the far end of Bakhmut, cutting off two highways in the process.

Wagner has made some small gains in the east of Bakhmut. Wagner has taken Opytne and is now fighting in southern and southeastern Bakhmut where they have made some gains. Wagner took Kurdyumivka to the south of Bakhmut a while ago.

Wagner just recently took Klishchiivka and they are now moving to the northwest and threatening Ivanivske southwest of Bakhmut and two more highways out of Bakhmut in the process. In this area, Wagner is advancing steadily in the face of the Nazi artillery fire. However, there are few Nazi infantry troops in the area. This means that the Nazis are pulling out of the area as infantry is the first to be pulled out. Artillery is still firing because it is only pulled out at the last moment.

There are reports that Russian DRG’s are even fighting in Stupochke considerably to the southwest of Bakhmut. Advances in this area are disastrous for the Nazis because they mean that Bakhmut is being surrounded. The US is currently advising the Nazis to retreat out of Bakhmut, as it is in the process of being surrounded. So Russia has made some very serious gains around Bakhmut, and the situation is increasingly tenuous and threatening for Ukraine.

To the south, there has been little movement around Toretske and Niu York to the northwest of Horlivka. The area is heavily fortified and the Russian groups have been trying to break through it for eight years now.

There has been little movement on the heavily fortified front between Toretske and Adviivka north of Donetsk.

Similarly, to the south around Adviivka, located  northwest of Donetsk, is the most heavily fortified area in Ukraine. Once again, Russian groups have been trying to bash through for eight years now. Russia has made some very slow progress in this area, taking heavily fortified Pisky, Opytne, and Vodyane west of Donetsk. Vodyane was taken just recently, and now the area to the north has been taken too. The heavily fortified line around Krasnohorivka to the south and west of Donetsk has been frozen for some time.

Marinka just to the south of Krasnohorivka is probably the second most heavily fortified region in Ukraine. Once again, Russian forces have been trying to blast through for eight years with no progress. There was also little progress there for many months in this way. For a long time there was fighting around the city dump with no movement in either direction.

In the last few months, Russian forces have taken the eastern half of Marinka. Then the line was frozen in the middle town for a long time. Recently, Russian forces bashed through and have now pushed the Ukrainians to the far west of the village. In addition, Russian forces are coming up from the south. So there has definitely been some serious progress for Russia in Marinka recently.

From Marinka south to Olhynka southwest of Donetsk, Russia made serious gains a few months ago, but since then, the line has been frozen.

From Olhynka west through Ugledar to Velka Novosilka west-southwest of Donetsk, there is another frozen line. The Russian Marines are fighting in the Ugledar area and have recently made some small gains. This area is heavily fortified by the Ukrainians, especially Ugledar and Velka Novosilka.

The Zaporozhzhia front runs from Velka Novosilka through Hulyaipole and Orekhiv to Vaslivka on the Dnipro River. It is in between Donetsk to the east and Zaporozhzhia to the west and at the far west end, the south of Zaporozhzhia. This front has been frozen for a very long time, as both sides have been reinforcing their lines. Recently the Russian military attacked all down this line, especially around Orekhiv. Russia took Novodanilivka, Mala Tomachka, Novoandriivka, Sherbaky, Lobkove, and Kamyanske.

Russian soldiers were shocked that there were very infantrymen on the line. Russia has 20,000 soldiers in this area to Ukraine’s 6,000. Apparently most of the infantry had been pulled out to go to Bakhmut. After the Russian attack, Ukraine rushed reinforcements to the front, and Russia no longer controls any of the towns above except for Lobkove. Instead they are all being fought over so they are all in the grey zone whether neither side controls the town.

From Vasilivka to the ocean along the Dnipro River is the Kherson front. Both sides have a lot of forces here. The Russians are on the south side of the river, and the Ukrainians are on the north side. Ukraine sent boats across to try to land in Russian territory, but they were seen and Russia wiped the group out. This entire front has been frozen since Russia retreated to south of the river a few months ago. Even now with an offensive going on along much of the line from Kremina to Vasilivka, there seems to be little movement along this front.

Artillery advantage. Russia has a massive artillery advantage over the Nazis. Russia is firing 50-60,000 artillery rounds per day, whereas the Nazis is only firing 5-6,000 rounds a day. So for every shell the Nazis fire, Russia fires 10! There is a story going around about a serious Russian artillery shortage. This is simply a lie put out by the west.

Wagner taking heavy casualties? The Nazis claim that Wagner suffered huge casualties in the Soledar area. There were 55,000 Wagnerians before the offensive in the area, and now there are said to be 10,000 Wagnerians, so apparently they lost 40,000 men there. There are also said to be many desertions and prisoners among this group.

That’s simply not a possibility. Further, I believe that Wagner still has over 50,000 men under arms. I have not been able to verify whether Wagner took heavy, much less catastrophic, casualties in Soledar and Bakhmut. There’s simply no evidence one way or the other. In fact, it is the Nazis who took heavy casualties in Soledar. They lost 13,000 men KIA in Soledar and 10,000 KIA in Bakhmut for 23,000 KIA in the entire area.

Wagner uses its prisoner battalions as cannon fodder in the front line because they are expendable. I’m not able to verify this either. No evidence in either direction, but I doubt if it’s true. See below.

Wagner does not care about how many men they lose. Once again, this seems more true of Ukraine than Wagner. The head of Wagner is on record as wanting to preserve as many of his troops as possible.

The Nazis also claim that Wagner uses human wave attacks. There does not seem to be much evidence for that. Instead, it is the Nazis that use these suicide charges.

So the Nazis are projecting again. The amount of projection in this war is insane. Just take many of the things that West is saying about Russia and apply them to the Nazis instead. That’s a pretty good formula. Whatever bad is happening to the Nazis is denied and said to be happening to Russia instead.

Instead, Wagner fights like the Russian Army fights. They pulverize an area with artillery first, and then they move in with infantry to clear trenches, etc. The West sees this method and calls it a human wave attack when really this is just the way that trenches are cleared.

Wagner wearing Ukrainian uniforms? Wagner did put on Nazi uniforms in Soledar, but they did this because they said the Nazi kit in terms of uniforms, etc. was better than the Russian kit. However, they must have continued to wear blue armbands when the Nazis wore green armbands. In one case, Wagner in Nazi uniforms snuck behind Nazi lines and came up behind a Nazi group, wiping it out entirely. I’m not sure if putting on the other side’s uniforms is a war crime or not.

Russia also uses prisoners to fight. This is true. The Russian army recently formed a group of 200 men recruited from prisons. They were probably offered a deal whereby they can survive for six months, then their sentence is commuted. This is the deal that Wagner is offering the prisoners that he recruits. Note that the USSR also did this during WW2, so it’s not unheard of.

Wagner’s force is all prisoners. This is not true. There is also a hard core of very well-trained fighters. They particularly excel at urban battles. Wagner fighters are actually some of the best fighters on Earth.

The Nazis will soon go on a Spring Offensive. The problem is that the Nazi Army has been destroyed. Actually, so far two whole Nazi Armies have been destroyed. The first one was destroyed some months in. Then the next one was destroyed. Now Russia is working on the third Nazi Army.

There simply won’t be enough troops left to conduct any sort of an offensive. It’s not possible. So all this talk of the Nazis winning the war or pushing Russia back or taking Melitopol or threatening Crimea is just nonsense. It’s literally not possible for the Nazi Army to do any of those things.

Russia is running out shells/missiles/whatever. The West has been saying this from early in the war. They’ve been  wrong the whole time. Russia is firing an incredible 50-60,000 artillery shells a day.

The new German Leopard, US Abrams, or UK Challenger tanks or US Bradley fighting vehicles are going to save the day for the Nazis. It’s simply too late for any of this to be any good. The Nazis are running out of men to use these things.

Also, all of these require some time to get good at them. It takes one year to train a junior tanker on any of those tanks. The senior tanker on a tank model will have several years’ experience. The Nazis will have very little training on any of these vehicles. They may learn how to drive them, but it will take at least a year before they are able to use any of this armor effectively in battle. Anyway, Russia has 12,000 tanks!

No Russian tank is a match for the US Abrams or UK Challenger tanks. Both of these are excellent tanks but the latest Russia tank model, the T-90, is a match for both of them.

Most people supporting Russia in the US seem to be on the MAGA Right/Far Right/Fascist Right. I went to Breitbart, ground zero for these folks, and they were running about 50-50 in support of Russia. So half of them are still supporting the Nazis. The non-MAGA Right or the Never Trumper wing of the Republican Party seems to support the war, but I am not sure at what level.

The real fanatical Nazi support in the US is coming from liberal Democrats. Go over to Daily Kos to see the wild,  fanatical support that liberal Democrats are giving the Nazis. It’s absolutely off the charts. It’s so bizarre that the main support for these Nazis is coming from liberal Democrats! The progressives to the left of them like Social Democrats and the Jacobin crowd, take a more nuanced approach, lately of just wanting peace. For a while they were moderately supporting Ukraine.

A majority of Europeans across a number of different countries now prefer that the war end in a negotiated settlement instead of a Ukrainian victory, which will never be forthcoming anyway. Only Poland and the Baltic barking poodles prefer a Ukrainian victory. Support for arming Ukraine is also dropping and is at 56% across Europe.

In much of the global South, people support Russia. A Chilean recently reported that he estimated that 70% of Chileans supported Russia. Russia also has big support in Africa. The Middle East is split ~50-50 on support for Russia. A majority of Indians and probably Pakistanis are supporting Russia. I don’t have any good figures for anywhere else.

25% of Russian households lack an indoor toilet. That is correct. Russia has a lot of very isolated settlements out in Siberia and other places. It’s hard to connect these remote rural areas up to any central sewage system, so they all use outhouses. Also, I believe that the dachas or vacation houses that many Russians still have from Soviet days were only supplied with outhouses. This seems to be a pretty normal thing for isolated rural areas.

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