More Election Predictions

Ed writes:

What you are really saying is that Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump at the polls because she is more popular than Trump is. More people want her to become President. That is all you are saying.
But you did not make the argument until challenged in the comments. You hid it behind all this pseudo-sophisticated Electoral College nonsense.

It’s not pseudo-sophisticated, and it’s not nonsense. The Electoral College is all that matters. Everything else is crap. Trump is the most toxic Presidential candidate in recent memory. Over half of Republicans say either they are uncertain he would be a good President or they say he will be a lousy President. Fully 40% of Republicans say Trump will be a lousy President. 40%!
Hillary will win all of the battleground states, well, at least if the election were held today. She will win Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and even North Carolina. Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina have gotten much more liberal in 20 years. Ohio and Pennsylvania are flat, but they lean ~3-4 points Dem. Florida is flat, but she will win there. A Republican barely won the governor’s race recently despite spending a mountain of money.
Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, have all gotten quite a bit more liberal in the last 20 years.
Not one single battleground state is getting more conservative over the last 20 years. Not one!
Hillary will not turn any red states though. At best, she could win Indiana and Arizona.
This is the longterm trend, and it will not be reversed.
Black turnout will be the same as 2012. Women despise Trump. Trump will win no more than 15-20% of Hispanics and maybe less than that. He has to win 66% of the White vote, and he might not even win 60%. His gains with working class Whites will be wiped out because Whites with some college hate him. Hardly any working class Democrats support him. Yes, working class Whites support him, but those people have been backing Republicans for a long time.
At least as of right now, he can’t win. She has 347 electoral votes. Total blowout. The election is over and it hasn’t even started yet.
Nate Silver puts Trump’s chance at winning at 2%. I would say that is optimistic.
Look at who the bookies are betting for. These people are willing to lay down their money to bet who wins. If Hillary wins, you will get a 33% return on your money. If Trump wins, you will get 150% return. The betters are favoring Hillary by a large margin.

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0 thoughts on “More Election Predictions”

  1. I’m not so sure of that; on visits to the lesbian capital of Oregon, I don’t see many Hillary bumper stickers.

  2. Dear Robert
    The US is the only country with a presidential system that doesn’t have a single country-wide election. Even the presidential election in the US is in fact 50 separate elections. The disadvantage of this system, as of all district systems, is that it does not only matter how many votes a party gets but also where it gets them. In such a system there is the problem of excess votes.
    To illustrate this, suppose that there 5 districts, each with 100 voters, and that there are 2 parties, the Reps and the Dems. In 2 districts, the Dems get 80% of the votes, and in the other 3 they get 40%, Their total number of votes is then 280, or 56%. The Reps get only 220 votes, but they will win 3 seats, and the Dems only 2. Despite beating the Reps on votes by 12 percentage points, the Dems get a minority of seats.
    In a district system, such distortions are frequent. In the UK, the Conservatives have a majority of seats despite receiving only 36.9% of the votes. UKIP, on the other hand, got only one seat out of 650, even though they gathered 13% of the votes. These distortions are the result of excess votes. It doesn’t matter whether a party wins a district with one vote or a million, it is worth only one seat. It doesn’t matter either whether you win a district with a majority or only a plurality.
    Very well, I thought that it was the Dems who had a problem with excess votes. Now you tell me that it is the Reps. It the Republican share of votes is larger than their share of the Electoral College, then they have the problem of excess votes.
    Regards. James

  3. Trump will win against most apparents odds, as Ronald Reagan did in 1980. Why? The Brexit crowd have had their way, in the same way as Margaret Thatcher and her crowd had in 1979, and Britain always precedes what is about to take place in America and elsewhere. The pro-worker Marxists and other rabid anticapitalists had had the upper hand upon the vanguard discourse up to Thatcher and Reagan, with Thatcher they lost all of a sudden, and the progressives had to resort to non-worker, non-revolutionary political correctness to keep their subsidized or sponsored jobs. Up to now the pro-coloured and other rabid antiracists have had the upper hand upon the vanguard discourse, they are in their turn losing it all of a sudden, for the new sponsored meme is now the Clash of Civilizations, with no longer any money to lavish upon any big body of intellectual prostitutes. It is even clearer that Trump is about to win after all when one considers Israel. Thatcher’s and Reagan’s victories could be guessed out judging from Israel who had the first abandoned social democracy as a mainstream reference with Menachem Begin : most of Jewish intellectual elite outside Israel clung to pro-worker marxism up to the last end (up to the demise of USSR) but the people of Israel exerted as such a far greater sway upon the general anglo-saxon public opinion. It can be said that Israel is the very soul of America, the soul of which America is the body. What the people of Israel leans towards, America also chooses telepathically even without any lobbying on Israel’s part (and sometimes against the direction headed for by the Jewish lobbies) as if they formed but one flesh, or better said, as if Israel were consciously thinking America’s own private offshore resort. Now the people of Israel are proud to define themselves as racist and intolerant towards foreign cultures stemming from poor countries (even Jewish), they are also proud to define themselves as anti-cultural, not multi-cultural. The fact is that Trump is now a far more beloved political figure (and felt to be more Jewish by soul than left-wing or PC Jews are) among the general Jewish Israeli population than Obama or even Hillary, who are now held in the same suspicion to represent only losers as Jimmy Carter was (even though initially Jimmy Carter was thought to be the first leader of post-industrial civilization as a perfect representative of the Southern Strategy). Pro-worker marxism can be thought of as a group strategy (seen abstractly from above : at merely human level very few if any individual at all were acting consciously to that effect, except for a few financial speculators on trends maybe) for Jews and other like communities to destroy the national bourgeoisies’ spirits by making all jobs tantamount to routine workers’ jobs, by making all qualified jobs as expendable and devoid of prestige as non-qualified ones, like by encouraging teachers to demonstrate in the streets as factory workers like any others, so as to reserve the real qualified status only to internationally connected jobs. Once the national bourgeoisies had lost their national independence and all identified to same world compact, it was no longer any use to honour the workers : the new thing to do so as to promote the same group interests was to combat the national working classes as such by opening borders and combating national progressive identities in favour of multiculturalism and abstract human rights, which quite often could be used as a cover for the advancement of very reactionary identities. But now it is antiracism’s turn to have outlived its use and to be dispensed with : the reactionary national workers, who now accept substandard working conditions and side with Israel against the invading Muslims, who now work for the most part in the military sector and the defence industries, who now identify with the Whites as a race and no longer as a group of progressive national entities, are no longer seen as an adverse factor. The cultural communities and minorities are about to be jettisoned in favour of a new world-view where anti-white racism is back again acknowledged as an offense but only in as much as it is a lesser form of antisemitism. Donald Trump, as Sheldon Adelson’s twin pal, is most representative of that winning trend. The ones who are about to lose big are not the financial elites but the intellectual and university-tenured ones, together with a huge crowd of sponsored artists used for mass entertainment. Masses, the conditioning of which is now perfect, are now no longer to be entertained and kept cal with goodies but deployed as task forces and kept in fighting condition with objects of collective resentment. The Jews themselves are discovering the virtues of western fascism as they did with those of capitalism in the seventies.

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