New from the Saker.
1. The Southern Cauldron has not been totally suppressed as of 08:19 10.08.2014. Scattered pockets of Ukie troops are still resisting. They are promptly overwhelmed as Resistance conducts their sweeps of the mostly abandoned Ukie positions in the Cauldron. Confirmed.
2. Of the over 700 Ukie troops who ran to and crossed the Norovorossiya/RF border, more than 60% have asked for asylum. The remainder have been repatriated to Ukraine by their request. Confirmed.
3. A bargain was made two days ago for some Ukie units to leave the Cauldron. The bargain was the Ukies had to leave their undamaged vehicles, both transport and fighting vehicles. Buses were provided by the Ukies to meet this group and transport them away from the Cauldron. Confirmed.
4. Another group of Ukies in the Cauldron attempted an armed breakout. This group has a very high proportion of foreign fighters, mostly Polish but also ‘others’. Their column was attacked continuously during the attempt and lost significant numbers of troops and equipment. It is estimated that of almost 700 who made the attempt, less than 225 managed to escape after abandoning their wounded during the fighting. The attempt and loses are confirmed.
5. It has been noticed that the continuous Ukie bombardments of civilian living areas in villages, towns and cities are hitting the ‘ordinary workers and peasants’ districts. The very extensive wealthy areas are virtually untouched by the Ukie artillery.
6. With the number of Resistance observers in the Cauldron, much intelligence information was gathered in addition to FAO activities. This information has been given to the RF with extensive written information and large amounts of photographic evidence.
This information is being used in the prosecution of now nine Ukie officers and 14 Ukie NCO’s detained in the Russian Federation for investigation of possible commission of war crimes involving the use of prohibited weapons against civilian targets in Novorossiya, the targeting of civilian areas in Novorossiya, the murder of one citizen of RF in Russia, the wounding of seven citizens of the RF in Russia and the destruction of both public and private property in the Russian Federation. Confirmed.
7. Additional use of Tuchka U tactical ballistic missiles is unconfirmed. The use of the first three (or four) Tuchka U systems resulted in the inability of the missiles to complete their course to their targets. Two very large impact craters have been observed in outlying villages in the Donetsk area since the first launches, but it is unknown what caused the craters. While the surrounding houses were damaged by the impacts, they do not show the massive damage that would have resulted from the air detonation of a Tuchka which would totally destroy any structure or living entity within 200 meters of the blast.
8. The overall situation in Novorossiya is very fluid as of 09:00 local time. The remains of the units from the Cauldron have now combined with the Ukie units that were trying to break through Resistance ‘lines’ and relieve the Cauldron, are attacking north, have now realigned their attacks and are aimed directly at Lugansk Airport some kilometers away. There is the possibility of another Cauldron forming around Antratsyt. If this comes to pass, it is doubtful any mercy will be shown to the Ukie forces trapped inside. As of 10:05 local time there are no significant ground actions on the northwest lines of Novorossiya; all attacks are on the southeast areas.
9. While the tactical fighting is to and fro with many Resistance resounding successes, the overall strategic situation for Novorossiya has not changed. Novorossiyan troops are still vastly outnumbered by the Ukie armed forces in manpower and catastrophically outnumbered in hardware regardless of the huge captures of Ukie equipment by Novorossiya AF.
The Ukies have the option of massing where and when they want and conducting forward movement operations as they please. The Novorossiya AF have not the manpower to fully man ‘the lines’ (neither do the Ukies) but Novorossiya AF are conducting defensive operations against an increasingly aggressive foe who is learning on the fly and learning well.
10. The political situation is still the same in regards to The West. The RF is ‘forbidden’ to help Novorossiya with humanitarian aid or to position RF troops on or near the increasingly volatile border between RF/Ukieland according to Samantha Power, the US delegate to UN, NATO and Brussels. Moving the Aegis cruiser Vella Gulf in to the Black Sea is a non-starter. The Black Sea is a Russian lake, and any aggressive moves by the cruiser may well result in an incident that will have far reaching consequences, not the least of which will be to the Vella Gulf itself.
11. The gradual introduction of NATO troops and equipment into Ukieland proper is of far more import. The first official ‘nonlethal’ equipment shipment from ‘Canada’ has arrived in Kharkov via NATO air transport on 09.08.2014. Another shipment is scheduled for shortly after 12:00 on 10.08.2014. It is confirmed that there are NATO troops on the ground in Kharkov to assist in the unloading of the cargo, the training involved with the new equipment and to guard the area of the airport proper.
Note: To train Ukie soldiers in the sophisticated night vision and other electronic equipment will take a month or more of intensive work. Ukieland does not have a month, nor does NATO. Who is going to use this equipment? It is also confirmed that there is an ever-increasing and not insignificant cadre of American troops in Kiev assisting the Ukieland government in their prosecution of the war under the nominal auspices of NATO.
12. Conclusions. Russia will not allow Novorossiya to fall. The Russian Army will not cross the borders with Novorossiya unless there is a catastrophic attack involving mass civilian casualties in Novorossiya or the Russian Federation.