Via the fantastic Vineyard of the Saker blog. He does regular updates on the situation in the Ukraine. This report is 10
I think that we can all agree that the situation in the Ukraine is one of total chaos.
Renat Akhmetov, the local oligarch-mobster, had declared that his companies will go on a “warning strike” for 3 hours per day because Akhmetov was angered that the authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) had taken over the control of the railways which resulted in losses for his company.
One of the officials of the DRP reacted to Akhmetov’s threat by declaring that the DRP authorities have begun the process of nationalization of the companies located on the territory of the DRP, in other words, Akhmetov’s holdings.
The military forces of the neo-Nazi junta have begun shelling several cities in the eastern Ukraine destroying several buildings
The military commander of the DRP forces, Igor Strelkov, has made a poignant and blunt appeal for a much bigger mobilization of men, especially officers, in the volunteer forces defending the DRP against the junta’s military.
Ukrainian death-squads have, yet again, kidnapped a team of Russian reporters, this time of the TV station LifeNews, accusing them of being the “information-component” of a terrorist movement.
The Russian government has indicated that the military forces which had been on maneuvers had returned to their bases. NATO denied that.
The Russian military has completed the building a network of pipelines which are now fully supplying Crimea with fresh water.
- The leader of the Ukie Nazis, Iarosh, has announced that if he is elected he would launched a guerrilla war in Crimea.
So what is really going on? I think that while it is premature to make grand conclusions and predictions, we can begin by agreeing on a number of basic facts. First, there is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that the junta in Kiev is clearly provoking Moscow in every possible way. If one could maybe see some marginal and far-fetched military rationale for the kind of random artillery strikes the Ukies are unleashing on Slavianks, Kramatorsk and other cities, the arrest of the LifeNews news-crew makes no sense at all. They were put on their knees, beat up, held with their faces to the ground – all on video which was then “leaked” to Youtube as if the death squads were provoking the Kremlin with a “what are you gonna do about it?” message/ Second, I believe that the appointment of Biden’s son to the board of directors of the main Ukie energy company whose concessions are all in the eastern Ukraine is also a way of further provoking the Kremlin. So why would the junta do all this? First, I think that it is reasonable to accept as an axiom that the freaks in Kiev don’t “decide” anything at all. They just take orders from the USA and execute them. We saw that clearly during Biden’s recent trip to Kiev when he had a meeting with the junta’s “government” which he – Biden – “chaired” sitting at the head of the table (yet another deliberate in-your-face provocation). Second, the US knows that the eastern Ukraine is lost, and they are absolutely correct. Even if we fully believe what Strelkov says (more about that later), there is no doubt that the vast majority of the folks in the Donbass hate the neo-Nazi freaks in Kiev and that they do not want a common future with the rabid Galicians from the western Ukraine. So if plan ‘A’ was to seize all of the Ukraine, put a pro-US neo-Nazi and hysterically Russophobic regime in power, and take over Crimea for the US/NATO, plan ‘B’ is simpler: provoke Russia into a military intervention in the eastern Ukraine. While the Russian military could easily take under control all of the Donbass and even all the lands to the Dniepr river as the proverbial hot knife through butter, the political benefits for the Anglo-Zionist Empire would be immense: 1) A new Cold War with Russia justifying the existence of NATO. 2) Cutting-off Russia from the EU market (including energy). 3) Blaming Russia for the Ukie economic collapse. 4) Justifying a major surge in US/EU military budgets to “protect Europe”. 5) Isolating Russia internationally, especially at the UN. 6) Declare Putin a “new Hitler” (what else?) and allocate billions for regime change in Russia. 7) Use the crisis to bring Europe to heel to the Anglo-Zionist “master” 8) Impose Iran-like sanctions on Russia to try to hurt it economically 9) Justify a US/NATO move into western Ukraine and the creation of a new Korean-style demarcation line along the Dniepr with the free and civilized “West” on one side, and the “freedom hating and imperialist dictatorial Russian Asiatic hordes” on the other. 10)Blame the EU economic collapse on the ‘Russian threat’ I would argue that for the Anglo-Zionists plan ‘B’ is almost better than plan ‘A’. For one thing, plan ‘B’ makes it possible to blame Russia for anything and everything conceivable on Russia. We have already seen this tendency in the absolutely ludicrous warning that should the Presidential elections next Sunday in the Ukraine fail – Russia would be sanctioned for it. Next I propose to slap some major sanctions on Russia if there is an earthquake in San Fransisco or if there are riots in Paraguay… Also, while plan ‘A’ was really a very long shot, plan ‘B’ is already working. Let me give you an example: the Russian media. For those who cannot follow the Russian media, especially the Russian TV, it is hard to image the degree of openly expressed *rage* at the developments in the Ukraine. Some folks who are naturally inclined to see the “hand of CIA” in everything are even arguing that the “US-controlled” Russian media has been tasked by Langley to stir up Russian public opinion to such a degree as to force Putin to agree to an intervention in the Ukraine. According to this thesis, if Putin does not order a Russian military intervention, he will face a major crisis and his popularity will crumble under the waves of outrage from the Russian population. This is a neat and elegant theory. It is also wrong (thank God!). The fact is that Putin’s popularity has soared over his handling over the Ukrainian crisis as shown by the screenshot of a recent TV report.
January 2014 – May 2014
Here we are dealing with a huge cultural difference between Russians and western people, especially Anglos: Russians are *very* weary of war. They will accept it and they will even accept to die in a war, but only one in which the moral issue is really clear-cut like during the 2nd Chechen war, 08.08.08 or the Russian intervention in Crimea. In all three of these cases the first and foremost consideration to support or oppose the Russian military intervention was a *moral* one. While public opinion is gradually shifting towards a support for a Russian military intervention in the Ukraine (most public opinion polls suggest that Russian would back one), the military itself and even the Kremlin are weary of falling into the Anglo-Zionist trap of plan ‘B’. Emotions are strong, but emotions should not decide of war and peace issues. In the 2nd Chechen war, in 08.08.08 and in Crimea emotions were sky-high, but the decision to use military force was taken on pragmatic, rational and carefully measured reasons, not just an surge of outrage. As I said it many times, when threatened, Russians to not get angry, they concentrate. This is what is happening now. Coming back to the media, another very interesting phenomenon is taking place: high visibility Russian Jews are clearly in the lead of the movement to take action (though not necessarily a military one) against the Junta. Very well-known Jewish personalities like Vladimir Soloviev, Alexander Gordon, Roman Ratner (current head of the Alia battalion, an Israeli special forces battalion compose of Russian Jews), Avigdor Eskin and many others. While rabid Jew-haters will dismiss this under the usual list of pretexts having to do with Jewish hypocrisy, playing both sides, etc. I personally believe that this is truly an expression of the loathing that Russian Jews have for Ukrainian neo-Nazis. I would add that it is pretty clear to me that most Russian nationalists also believe in the sincerity of these Jews and welcome them in a struggle against a common enemy. Does that mean that from now on there will be a long and uninterrupted “love fest” between Russian and Jewish patriots? Most definitely not. The list of outstanding issues of very strong disagreement and even opposition is huge, but this is an interesting “temporary cease-fire” if you want, a typically Russian (and Jewish!) way of keeping priorities straight and agreeing to a temporary tactical alliance against a common foe. Furthermore, there are a lot of Russian Jews who have always felt a sincere and strong love for Russia and the Russian people (if only because a lot of them came from mixed marriages) and who welcome the opportunity to not have to chose between both sides and to be both patriotic Jews and patriotic Russians. I know, to some this sill sound extremely naive. But I personally have known many such Russian Jews, in Israel, Europe and Russia, who really did have a double-loyalty, but one which openly *added* two sincerely loyalties. Of course, some felt more Jewish than Russian, but others felt more Russian than Jewish. These matters are subtle and complex, not as black and white as some knee-jerk Jew-haters would want them to be. As the Russian expressions goes “the East is a subtle realm” and both Russians and Jews are first and foremost folks of the East, not of the West. Coming back to what I call the Anglo-Zionist plan ‘B’, we now can understand the Russian stance: not to be pulled in or, if that is impossible, to be pulled in as last as possible. Why? For a few basic reasons: 1) To have as clear-cut a moral case as possible. 2) To give time to world public opinion to realize that it is being lied to by the western corporate media (that already seems to be taking place, if slowly). 3) To maximize the support for such an intervention in the eastern Ukraine. 4) Because time is very much on the Russian side, to give every opportunity to the junta freaks to further commit blunders. 5) Because a victory of the DRP forces is still possible At this point I want to get the the military balance on the ground in the Donbass. To sum things up. A very large Ukrainian force is currently deployed in the eastern Ukraine. It is opposed by a very small force of volunteers. There are two reasons why this conflict has not been settled in 24 hours. First, the vast majority of the Ukrainian military personnel does not want to fight. Second, the threat of a Russian military intervention is real and, I would add, has nothing to do with the forces allegedly deployed at the Russian-Ukrainian border. Let me explain this as the corporate media is completely missing this. Let me give you an example of what could happen. Let’s us assume that a few multiple-rocket launcher batteries around, say, Slaviansk suddenly decided to get serious and open up with a sustained artillery barrage similar to the one the Georgians unleashed on Tskhinval in the first hours of the 08.08.08 war. In response to that, Russia would not need to send armor and troops across the border. Putin could order missile and air-strikes which could literally obliterate the offending Ukrainian artillery units in a matter of *minutes* (one single Iskander missile armed with a fragmentation or fuel-air explosive warhead could do the job!). Unlike the western reporters (which is a misnomer, they should be called “parroters” because they parrot the government lies), the Ukrainian military commanders all fully realize that they are all very much within reach of enough Russian firepower to send them all the a better world in minutes. Would you want to obey orders to shell Slaviansk while knowing that there is a bulls-eye painted on our exact position by many Iskander missile operators and that if the Russians fire it, you will neither see, nor hear it coming (not even on radar)? All the reports on the ground concur to say that while the various Ukrainian death squads (the “National Guard”, the Dniepr and Dniester battalions, the various oligarch-owned death squads, etc.) are extremely hostile and even shoot civilians for fun, the Ukrainian military is mostly shy or even pretty friendly to the locals. Here is what is happening really: Ukrainian death squads are far more busy dealing with the Ukrainian military than with the Donbass forces. For one thing, this is easier and safer for them (like all death squads, they are staffed with lunatics, perverts and cowards): why risk your life fighting some pretty motivated folks when you can instead bully regular military commanders to do the fighting for you? As for the Ukrainians, they cannot openly defy these orders, but they can make darn sure that they are minimally executed. Furthermore, by all accounts, the death squads get all the support while the regular military forces are under or not paid at all, they are under fed, under equipped, they have little or not medical support and the logistics are plain horrible. In fact, Igor Strelkov admits this in his address. His concern is that with the gradual escalation the already small forces of volunteers is having to shoulder am immense effort while hundred of thousands of men, including military trained ones, are sitting at home and sipping beer. Is that really true? I believe that this is indeed very true. There are many reasons for this state of affairs. To begin, an entire generation of Ukrainians have been raised in abject passivity. “Work, shut up and mind your business while we fleece you” was the order of the day under the various oligarch-controlled regimes of the “independent Ukraine”. Second, there are not one or two but at least THREE local powers in the Donbass right now: the local mobsters, the Kiev junta and the local resistance. This creates a huge confusion were many people are both afraid and do not want to get burned. Third, most people clearly that Russia will solve the problem for them and think “we will vote for sovereignty, and the Russians will come to liberate us sooner or later”. And never forget that that there are death squads operating all over the Ukraine right now. The purpose of massacres like the one in Odessa or Mariupol is to terrify the locals by showing how ruthless and murderous you are and it works (death squads are of the most time honored traditions of the Empire!). So it is all well to sit in the safety of my house in sunny Florida and wish that the folks in the Donbass would take up arms, except for my wife and family are not threatened. My house will (probably) not get assaulted at night by man in black, and I am unlikely to be disappeared, tortured and murdered. This also applies to most of the readers of this blog. Of course, Strelkov clearly sees where all this is heading (escalation) and he is concerned that the currently small resistance will not be able to cope with a constantly growing junta escalation: it all began with baseball bats, the they switched to Molotov cocktails, then handguns, assault-rifles and machine guns. Now they have already used mortar and artillery fire. We have confirmed reports of helicopter-fired unguided missile attacks and this morning I got a report of a Sukhoi attack. Add to this oligarch-paid death squads and you clearly will see what has Strelkov so worried and, let’s face it, disgusted with the passivity of the locals. But keep in mind that even if his appeal is not heeded, and even if the key cities are re-taken, the Donbass is already lost. In fact, the latest report out of Kiev says the Ukie rump-Rada has adopted a memorandum stating that “Ukrainian troops deployed in the country’s east should immediately return to their bases”. Now, I am not holding my breath (Uncle Sam will never agree), but who knows what might happen (maybe the Germans are getting involved now?). I believe that nobody really knows. There are simply too many variables to confidently state that this or that will happen. Heck, we are not even sure of what has already happened! This is an extremely chaotic situation in which most unpredictable things could happen (for example, an oligarch could e bought by Moscow or a resistance figure could be bought by the USA – it really could go either way). The fact is that with the notable exception of true believers (on both sides), the vast majority of Ukrainians are still in the “what is in it for me?” mode. Again, this is in no way different form the position of most Russians in 1917, 1991 or 1993. While this kind of apparent passivity has nothing to do with some “lack of democratic culture in the past of these societies which only recently were feudal” and all the rest of the garden variety western racism supremacist, it is a direct result of a profound alienation with, and suspicion of, the elites. These folks just so Yanukovich hand power to neo-Nazis and run abroad! They have been burned over and over again. And, this is crucial, there is no Ukrainian Putin to follow. When Putin came to power in Russia it took less than a month for the armed forces to feel that “this guy has got our backs”. It took the rest of the population a little longer, but now the vast majority of Russians actually trust Putin. Whom should they trust in the Ukraine or even in the Donbass. Figure which appeared just a few weeks ago and which nobody really knows or figures which are known for decades for being thief, crooks and pathological liars? Whom would you trust if you were living in Donetsk or Lugansk? Would you risk your life and the life of your family on such a choice? Exactly. So while I understand the frustration of Strelkov (and most of us!) with seeing a territory with millions of people defended by only a few hundred courageous men, and while I also catch myself getting enraged in discussed with the news out of the Ukraine and day-dreaming about Polite Armed Men in Green obliterating the Ukie death-squads, I also understand why this has been and will continue to be a slow process: it is simply too fluid and too rapidly shifting to take any premature or rash decisions. The Anglo-Zionists are desperately trying to trigger an over Russian intervention, and there is a pretty good chance that they might succeed, no doubt, but the good news is that time is running out fast, very fast, soon the economic crisis is going to start really biting and the unrest will spread far beyond the Donbass. As for the Presidential elections next Sunday, they are going to be such a mega-farce that it serve no other purpose than to maybe give NATO a justification to move forces into the western Ukraine at the “request” of the new President. Will the West recognize this election? You betcha it will! As Vladimir Soloviev put it on Sunday, “even if there will be only one candidate and one person voting, the West will call these elections free and fair“. But for the people of the Ukraine this will be a self-evident farce which will only alienate them further, including the neo-Nazis. In fact, Yulia Timoshenko (who, by the way, seems to have gone completely insane) has even declared that if the billionaire oligarch Poroshenko is elected (as all polls seem to suggest) she will launch yet another revolution with Maidan and all. Following the example of the Ukraine, not it is “Banderastan” which is committing national suicide and that entire house of cards will be coming down soon (unless a last minute effort by Germany helps delay or stop this, but I am not holding my breath). We all need to show some patience now. Sorry for the very long SITREP, but I have to cover a lot of ground. Many thanks and kind regards, The Saker