Prediction: Race is going to get ugly. Obama is winning, and has been winning all along. However, he is winning more in electoral votes than in the popular vote. Romney was supposed to get a convention bump, but it looks like he got little or none. There doesn’t seem to be any way for Romney to win this.
Romney’s strategy has been to run hard for his party’s base, but that doesn’t seem to be enough this time around. At the same time, he does his Etch a Sketch dance where every day or so he takes a new position, or a new ten positions, often contrary to ones he just took yesterday or last week. He’s all over the place and seems to believe in absolutely nothing other than doing anything to win so he can stuff the pockets of his plutocrat buddies.
Romney is a terrible candidate, possibly the worse since Michael Dukakis in 1988. He reminds everyone of the rich spoiled brat you hated in high school. Face it, to Romney, everyone’s a peon, especially you and me. He’s Mister 1%.
States: Of the competitive states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Hampshire and New Mexico are with Obama and out of Romney’s reach. Obama will probably also win Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado and Iowa, though Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado will be very close. Florida is a 100% tossup, either side could win. North Carolina is also more or less a tie, but Romney seems to have a bit of an edge.
On the other hand, Romney has Tennessee, Arizona, Montana and Missouri safely in the bag.
Aikin’s dumb rape remarks may cost him the race, but he won’t throw the state to Obama. Missouri used to be the ultimate “reasonable” state, but it’s not the case anymore. Harry Truman could never get elected again. Outside the big cities, it’s solid Republican and getting much worse in the last 20 years. Much of the state has gone heavily rightwing nutty, and a lot of it is due to Christian fundamentalism.
A couple of older polls show close races in South Carolina and Georgia for Obama in what ought to be safe Romney states, but they will surely both go for Romney. There have been no recent polls.
In the past 10-15 years, Pennsylvania and New Mexico were very competitive states, but they are moving into safe Democrat territory. New Hampshire’s reputation for hardline conservatism is taking a beating lately as the state changes with many Massachusetts natives moving into southern New Hampshire.
Formerly safe Republican states of Colorado, Nevada, Virginia and North Carolina have all moved into the swing state realm recently for various reasons. For Nevada, it is the large Hispanic population in and around Las Vegas. Many Northerners are moving to the northern South in Virginia and North Carolina, especially in certain areas that have become tech hubs. Many more Blacks have registered to vote here in the past several years.
Formerly safe Democratic Michigan and Wisconsin have moved to swing state territory in recent years for hard to fathom reasons. Many of the wealthy White suburban Chicago residents have moved from northwestern Chicago up into southern Wisconsin, transforming the state.
The unions were crushed in Michigan, which may have caused a Democratic voter decline Michigan. The former competitive state of West Virginia has gone deep red recently, possibly for cultural reasons. This is the poorest state in the US, but they are fanatical Republicans. Whatever.
By 2020, Texas and possibly even Arizona may become competitive, though they are both solidly Republican now. Reason? Hispanics.
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A lot of liberal whites are settling into cities like Houston and Phoenix, and in Houston, liberals from all over the world. Houston is a very cosmopolitan city – we have people immigrating here from all over because of our diverse economy.
I agree this race is going to be ugly. How do you run a positive campaign out of what either president accomplished the last twelve years? And there’s no way to tell the voters what they’ll like to hear about spending, taxes and jobs. I’m actually quite surprised there isn’t a significant third-party presence in this race.
The state-by-state analysis above will only remain relevant if the overall popular vote remains within 52-48 range. I expect 55-45 (either way), which is about a 350-175 electoral rout.
“Romney is a terrible candidate, possibly the worse since Michael Dukakis in 1988. He reminds everyone of the rich spoiled brat you hated in high school. Face it, to Romney, everyone’s a peon, especially you and me. He’s Mister 1%.”
That was the good thing about Bush for the republicans. He was in the 1% but he came across like a common man or a cowboy. He was highly relatable for poor republicans.