The Polls Are All Wrong

First of all, AP is a hard rightwing organization run by millionaire fundamentalist Christian Texans, some of whom are Christian Reconstructionists, with deep ties to corporate America. AP has a deep Republican bias, and based on their articles, especially by Liz Sidotti, they are pulling out all the stops for the Republicans with their biased reporting.
Much is being made of a New York Times – CBS TV poll on October 27. It showed Republicans with a 6 point lead in the generic Congress race. Other recent polls come up with similar numbers.
However, as I noted earlier, all of these polls leave out “cell phone only” voters. Many of these are young people. So far, the two polls that included cell phone only voters gave Democrats a 6 point lead in the generic Congress poll. That means that the recent NYT-CBS poll is wrong by a margin of 12 points. I’d like some more information on the cell phone only voters polls. Did they poll registered voters or likely voters?
All projections of huge Republican gains in the House and Senate are based on these flawed polls, which are off by a full 12 points.
Now, it’s possible that even with a 6 point lead in the generic poll, Democrats will lose the House. I don’t understand the polling well enough to comment on that. But they won’t lose the Senate. At the very least, I am quite certain this is not going to be the wipeout everyone says it will be.
Many races are very close:
Democrat Barbara Boxer is beating Republican zillionaire Carly Fiorina by 5 points. Boxer will win in a close race.
Democrat Harry Reid is tied with Republican Sharron Angle. Toss up!
Democrat Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey are tied in Pennsylvania. Toomey should have been walking away with this one. Toss up!
Democrat Patty Murphy is up by 2 points over Republican Dino Rossi in Washington. She’s going to win, but it will be very close.
In early voting, more Democrats have voted than Republicans in North Carolina! This means super-nut Republican Richard Burr may lose to Democrat Elaine Marshall!
Republican Ron Johnson is up by 2 points over Democrat Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. He may well win a cliffhanger race.
Democrat Scott McAdams is now leading the crazy 3-way race in Alaska with Republican Joe Miller and Libertarian Lisa Murkowski! The Democrat may win, but it will be close and crazy!
Republican Rob Portman will probably defeat Democrat Lee Fisher in Ohio but it will be a close race.
In a 3-way race in crazy Florida, Republican mental patient Marco Rubio will defeat both closet gay Independent Charlie Christ and Democrat Kendrick Meek.
Republican Mike Lee will surely defeat Democrat Sam Granato in Utah.
Republican Don Hoeven faces Democrat Tracy Potter in North Dakota. I haven’t the faintest idea who will win.
Team Crazy Republican Ken Buck ought to be walking away with the race in Colorado. Instead, he’s tied with Democrat Micheal Bennet!
Republican lunatic Cristine O’Donnell will lose badly to Democrat Chris Coons in Delaware.
Democrat Ron Wyden will easily defeat Republican Jim Huffman in Oregon.
Democrat Barbara Mikulski will easily defeat zillionarie Republican Eric Wargotz in Maryland.
Republican Tom Coburn will handily beat Democrat Jim Rogers in Oklahoma.
Democrats Kristin Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer will destroy the Republicans in New York.
Democrat Daniel Inouye will destroy Republican Cam Cavasso in Hawaii.
Republican Johnny Isakson will defeat Democrat Mike Thurmond in Georgia.
Democrat Pat Leahy will easily defeat Republican Len Britton in Vermont.
Republican Jim DeMint, lunatic, will handily defeat Democrat Alvin Greene in South Carolina.
Republican Jerry Moran will easily beat Democrat Lisa Johnston in Kansas.
Republican nut Rand Paul is tied with Democrat Jack Conway in Kentucky. Toss-up!
Democrat Richard Blumenthal will beat wrestling mogul Republican Linda McMahon in Connecticut.
Republican kook Roy Blunt will defeat Democrat Robin Carnahan in Missouri, but it will be a close race.
Democrat Blanche Lincoln will lose to Republican John Boozman in Arkansas in a close race.
Republican Mike Crapo will easily defeat Democrat Tom Sullivan in Idaho.
Republican Chuck Grassley will defeat Democrat Roxanne Conlin in Iowa.
Democrat Alexi Giannoulias is beating Republican Mark Kirk in Illinois. He will win, but it will be close.
Republican Kelly Ayotte will defeat Democrat Paul Hode in New Hampshire in a close race.
Democrat Joe Manchin is starting to pull away from Republican John Raese in West Virginia.
Republican Dan Coats will easily defeat Democrat Brad Ellsworth in Indiana.
Republican John McCain will easily defeat Democrat Rodney Glassman in Arizona.
Republican David Vitter will defeat Democrat Charlie Melancon in Louisiana, but incredibly enough, it will be very close.

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0 thoughts on “The Polls Are All Wrong”

  1. I’m pretty sure this post is a joke. It is, right?
    As I wrote on a post the other day, this cell phone only meme has been floating around for several election cycles and hasn’t come to fruition yet. If it does in fact exist it is more than offset by curmudeonly older conservatives who either don’t answer telephone calls or who cop attitudes when people call them on the phone asking questions. I used to work as a telemarketer so I know first hand how difficult old people (who usually are conservative) can be on the phone.
    So if that cell phone meme ever did exist and still exists today it only makes sense that the polls will actually favor conservatives more than you predict. Not to mention the curdmudgeonry meme I mentioned above, but it is the older cohort who have moved more towards “cell phone only” use in relatively higher proportions than young people who have always been “cell phone only” users.
    If polls predict a 6 point generic conservative victory I’m predicting more of a 10 point victory.
    Give me a solid figure, Robert. What margin are you predicting?

    1. Nope, I predict that this will not be nearly the wipeout that everyone says it’s going to be. In fact, early returns are already favoring Democrats, which is very strange because early returns have traditionally favored Republicans.
      I don’t understand enough about the cell phone only thing to make sense of it one way or the other. All I know is when you include them, things end up all different.
      Republicans won’t win by 6 or 10 points. It will be less than that, or maybe they won’t even win in numbers at all, but will still get seats.

    2. The right went too crazy, too soon and for too long. Lots of people who were apathetic because of disillusionment with the Democrats are now motivated to vote.

    1. i telemarketed back when i was 17…i wait tables now because i can’t find a job and because i enjoy my life of leisure, blogging, and late night fornication.

        1. the problem for me is that my care free lifestyle has gone on a little longer than it should have. i’ve been on a joyride and wanted to stop on a dime, but thats not how it works. by that, i hoped to have my fun in my 20s and then – when i wanted to get serious and career/status-oriented – have a well-paying job just waiting for me to sign the dotted line for. but its hard to aim towards both of those goals and have it happen when you snap your fingers. of course, i had never deluded myself into thinking that that was the case.

  2. Regardless of the outcome, you will get more sharp criticism of Obama and the Dem elite today in Krugman’s column, than you will from loyalist Bob. Along with very pessimistic inferences.

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