All along, the polls that have had Republicans ahead in the generic Congress race have left out cell phone only voters. There are quite a few voters who simply do not have a land line at all. Typically, these are young people. It looks like young people are breaking in a huge way for Democrats. Now, two new polls, one by McClatchy and one by Newsweek, which included cell phone only users have the Democrats up by +6 in the generic poll. The polls which exclude cell phone only users typically have Republicans up by up to 12 points. Early voting shows that more Democrats are voting than Republicans. I would like to take this moment to bash Hispanics. Talking to a few of them around here, Hispanics, even US citizens, even 3rd generation, simply do not vote. If I am wrong on this, please correct me.
Two New Polls Have Democrats Ahead
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Yup, hispanics are pretty a-political. Steve Sailer talks alot about this on his blog. The white vote is way, way, waaaay more important than the puny hispanic vote, even in states like Cali.
Blah, blah. I usually put all my eggs into what Nate Silver is cranking out over at Five Thirty Eight. He’s got the Democrats retaining control of the Senate, and something like a 25-30 vote Republican majority in the House after November.
It’s 1994 all over again.
Also, I don’t think that Hispanics vote less than 18-29 year olds as a group.
Do you read Nate Silver? He still has the Repubs way ahead in the House race.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
As much as I loathe the spineless Dems, I hope these new polls are right.
“Hispanics, even US citizens, even 3rd generation, simply do not vote. If I am wrong on this, please correct me. ”
Robert, you live in California among Mexicans.
Here in the Northeast, Puerto Ricans and Cubans appreciate the empowerment.
Arent most Cubans anti-Castro right wing Republicans?
Correct. They’re the OPPOSITE of Mexicans.
Mexicans (in America) couldn’t get jobs in Mexico.
Cubans (in America) were middle class and didn’t want to live under redistribution.
What do Cuban Americans think would happen to Cuba once Castro is removed?
It would probably be an organised crime state like it was before under Batista linked to the CIA involved in trafficking drugs like a regional Kosovo.
This meme has been floating around since the ’04 election, and cell phone users have yet to come through. I hope pollsters aren’t stupid enough to use landlines in their samples.